Happy Thanksgiving, and welcome back to the Sunstone Way.
I hope you get your fill of popcorn and toast at Thanksgiving dinner – oh wait. That’s “A Charlie Brown Thanksgiving.” But you know what I mean.
On To Shopping
Despite what the television commercials have been telling you, the holiday shopping season actually starts tomorrow – Black Friday. At least that’s what I’ve been trying to tell myself, since I haven’t gone gift shopping yet!
For much of this year, retailers have warned about higher prices and less choice this Christmas, primarily because of tariffs and the threat of tariffs. Despite that, the National Retail Federation says holiday sales will top $1 trillion for the first time ever this year. Sales are expected to be up between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024.
Unfortunately, much of that increase is due to higher prices, even though many retailers try to hold the line by cutting their profit margins. That also has resulted in fewer deep discounts and an emphasis on necessities.
Goods Movement
Compared to the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, shelves will be relatively well-stocked. But the way those goods – especially those imported from other countries – got to the shelf saw major shifts, again at least partially due to tariffs.
To avoid higher duties, many large retailers moved their holiday product shipments earlier than usual, resulting in surges in ocean freight demand and shipping costs over the summer. At the Port of Long Beach, record numbers of containers were moved over the summer and into the fall, but by October, the volume of goods had dropped by nearly 15%.
Many suppliers have spread purchases over more countries to lessen risk; but that requires more paperwork, slowing the shipping process and increasing costs. Once the goods get to the U.S., though, the supply chain has been working smoothly and the Port of Long Beach reports only moderate congestion – less than what was seen in Christmases past.
Small Business Saturday
As I think you know, I’m a big fan of small business. They are a huge portion of our economy, and the startups we support are small businesses pretty much by definition.
It was a pretty big deal when Small Business Saturday was launched in 2010. There were all sorts of promotions, discounts and incentives to get people in the door of mom-and-pop stores all over the country.
When American Express – the credit card company that launched Small Business Saturday as a promotion – backed away from the event, it took on a life of its own. That Saturday after Thanksgiving became a mainstay in small towns, business districts and anywhere the store wasn’t a part of a chain.
It stood on its own because it was a manifestation of community. The very idea of “buy local” is an example of helping make our community a better place. What’s more supportive than helping your neighbors stay in business?
Holiday Meaning
I hope you don’t think that all this talk about business is meant to focus Thanksgiving and Christmas on commercialization. Far from it.
I cherish the chance to stop and give thanks for all my blessings – my family, my friends, my colleagues, you. I hope I live out “the reason for the season.” It is a favorite time of year.
Enjoy. When you get the chance to support your community, do it. That is, after all, the Sunstone Way.
And remember, always be a Sunstone!
John Keisler
CEO & Managing Partner
Sunstone Management, Inc.
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©Sunstone Management, Inc. 2025